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Moonee Valley Race 9: William Hill Handicap 1200m

27/11/2015: I tipped the Tasmanian horse Valiant Warrior when he won at the Valley last preparation when he was something like $8 pre post. I missed that luxurious price and had to accept around $4 and he won accordingly. He hasn't been jumping all that well in Tasmania but last start he really rocketed home in Tasmania's best sprint race and I suspect he will be kicked up early for this race. Gallant Harmony was beaten convincingly by Weinholt but remember that horse has form around Malaguerra and last weeks WA Group 1 winner Good Project so be forgiving and the double figure odds look attractive. It's hard to ignore horses like Nicoscene and Tudor as chances even though I am worried about the early pace. Both have Group 2 ability in Adelaide and that equates to this level. Kievann, after the claim, carries a mere 52.5kg and that brings him in as a chance too. Mandla will need luck from his inside barrier draw but D Oliver will ride for luck, as he often does, so don't totally dismiss his chances.

Moonee Valley Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 18:00, 28/11/2015

RACEMAPWilliam Hill Handicap 1200m
Front Runners (3) Boomwaa, (12) Bullpit.
On Pacers (1) Valiant Warrior, (8) Written Up, (9) Gallant Harmony, (12) Zupacharged, (13) Tudor.
Mid Fielders (4) Mandla, (6) Nicoscene, (7) Kievann, (10) Belesron, (11) Taddei Tondo.
Get Back (2) General Groove.
PACE COMMENTS For a sprint this race seems devoid of a fiery early pace with Boomwaa leading from barrier three and Bullpit sitting on his outside and that's about it out front. I cannot see Tudor, Zupacharged and Gallant Harmony (all drawn wide) ruining their chances by taking on the obvious front running pair so they will ease back whilst Tasmanian galloper Valiant Warrior will again take the trail off barrier one (he had the same barrier when he won at this track) and Written Up will slot in. I think this makes life tough for the mid fielders so be wary about getting too excited about their prospects.
CHANCESWilliam Hill Handicap 1200mOrderMargin
Valiant Warrior PLUS: Track and distance winner, now ready, four distance wins, wins on good and soft tracks, great draw. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Gallant Harmony PLUS: Malaguerra Good Project formline, track and distance winner, 3 kg claim very helpful. B 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Kievann PLUS: Three wins at this track and distance, beautifully weighted after claim, four good track wins. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Nicoscene PLUS: Three wins from six runs at the track and distance, handles good and wet tracks, Group 2 winner. D 1.5
  MINUS: Has to overcome slow early pace and get back style.    
Tudor PLUS: 3kg claim helps, has Group 2 form against Nicoscene, track and distance winner. E 1.75
  MINUS: Poor barrier draw, one win from fifteen good track runs, one distance win from eleven runs.    
Mandla PLUS: Track and distance winner, five good track wins, Flamberge form line good. F 2
  MINUS: Gets back from inside draw.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 28 November 2015
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Moonee Valley 9 William Hill Handicap 1200m
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EXOTICS William Hill Handicap 1200m
Exacta

A: 5 7

B: 2 4 6 12

Trifecta

A: 5 7

B: 2 4 6 12

C: 2 3 4 6 8 9 12

First Four

A: 5 7

B: 2 4 6 12

C: 2 3 4 6 8 9 12

D: 2 3 4 6 8 9 12

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