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Moonee Valley Race 9: William Hill Handicap BM84 1600m

22/01/2016: Volcanic Ash should have won last start as he certainly covered more ground than the beaten 1.45 lengths margin. With the cosy run he will receive he figures as a top chance. My only query would be the track as his two best recent runs have been on his home track at Caulfield. Rationality has been "killing" the opposition in Adelaide and his astute trainer really knows how to bring over the right horse for the right race. Rib Eye is up in grade and you never really know if the class rise is too much of an ask but I have learned to never underestimate a lightly raced improver. I have slotted in Orion but mainly because of the positive Damien Oliver engagement. I will be watching him carefully and if he has another ordinary run he is in the sin bin for future A and B positions. Koroibeite is a live chance at big odds as a two times second up winner and with the 3kg claim is well weighted. It's worth noting he was backed first up so must have pleased someone. Camdus is doing most things right in lower grades and with Craig Williams aboard and the 4.5kg weight drop he figures as another of the lightly raced brigade still improving.

Moonee Valley Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEDT 18:05, 23/01/2016

RACEMAPWilliam Hill Handicap BM84 1600m
Front Runners (1) Prepee, (4) Rib Eye, (7) Leveraction, (11) Rationality, (15) Camdus.
On Pacers (2) Kinselmac Manner, (3) Orion, (5) Volcanic Ash, (13) Young Nicola.
Mid Fielders (6) Pin Your Hope, (8) Abbasso, (9) Murdoch's Joy.
Get Back (10) The Ruffian, (12) Heavy, (14) Tuff Host, (16) Koroibete.
PACE COMMENTS With Leveraction, a bold front runner, over this distance as the equivalent of Fab Fevola over a shorter course we are guaranteed of a good, solid pace. The other front runners are all going to be in the mix as well jostling for a position either in Leveraction's slipstream or on his outside. This provides Volcanic Ash, Orion and Kinselmac Manner with perfect runs off the pace. All told this is a race where pace is not an issue and the back markers will get their chance if good enough.
CHANCESWilliam Hill Handicap BM84 1600mOrderMargin
Volcanic Ash PLUS: Four wins from seven good track runs, wide only run this distance, career record of five wins from ten runs. A 0
  MINUS: Perhaps a Caulfield horse.    
Rationality PLUS: Three good track wins, Phillip Stokes trained, career record four wins from eight starts. B 0.5
  MINUS: First start this track, been winning easily in weaker grade, classic young improver.    
Rib Eye PLUS: Unbeaten at distance from two runs, four good track wins from nine runs, improver drawn well. C 1
  MINUS: Class rise.    
Camdus PLUS: Craig Williams aboard, young improver, 4.5kg weight drop assists. D 1.5
  MINUS: Distance query.    
Orion PLUS: Damien Oliver goes on board, two wins from four this track, one of those days last start? E 2
  MINUS: At crossroads as did nothing last run.    
Koroibete PLUS: Backed first up positive sign, 3 kg claim very helpful second up, two second up wins from four attempts. F 2.5
  MINUS: Unsure if fit enough second up off 290 days.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 23 January 2016
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Moonee Valley 9 William Hill Handicap BM84 1600m
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EXOTICS William Hill Handicap BM84 1600m
Exacta

A: 4 10

B: 3 4 5 10 11 13

Trifecta

A: 4 10

B: 3 4 5 10 11 13

C: 3 4 5 10 11 13

First Four

A: 4 10

B: 3 4 5 10 11 13

C: 3 4 5 10 11 13

D: 3 4 5 10 11 13

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