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Mornington Race 7: Bayside Auto Mornington Guineas 1500m

1/04/2016: My initial run through of chances had eleven runners as possible winners! My second run through, after some guess work and supposition, eliminated five runners (Amadeus, Sea Of Tranquility, Get The Dukes Out, Lahqa, Palace Tycoon) yet if one of them won it would not surprise. If Hattori Hanzo, the recent winner of the Group 3 Phar Lap Stakes, was in this race he would almost be the A selection so on that basis I have selected Sir Sagamore because he was beaten 0.5 lengths by Hattori Hanzo two starts ago. Forget his last start on a wet track as he is duffer under those conditions with one placing in six runs. The run by But It's True at his first race start was terrific, although in a weaker level, and he can only improve and his breeding suggests the extra distance won't be a problem. Gold Fields gave highly touted He's Our Rokkii a thrashing at Sandown after being held up in the Sir Sagamore race mentioned earlier. He can lead or box seat and win again. Unbreakable came back from a spell from well back and running wide on the home turn to just win. His better barrier could make the difference as he won't have to run wide circling the field again. Tarquin is now a gelding and a top first up performance is expected after a recent, solid barrier trial. He is the handicapper's horse, top rated by 6kg, having raced well in much tougher races than this. Rong Door Reggie has won twice at this distance at both runs this preparation but he has won on a good track at this venue so don't just think he is solely a wet tracker. Municipality flopped on the heavy Albury track off 30 days in a forgivable run. The run prior he finished 0.2 lengths behind last Saturday's Caulfield winner Cool Chap. That's good enough for this race at odds.

Mornington Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: SHOWERY. RaceTime: AEDT 15:30, 02/04/2016

RACEMAPBayside Auto Mornington Guineas 1500m
Front Runners (4) Sea Of Tranquility, (7) Lahqa, (11) Gold Fields.
On Pacers (1) Unbreakable, (2) Rong Door Reggie, (5) Gagasian, (6) Palace Tycoon, (13) Get The Dukes Out, (14) Amadeus.
Mid Fielders (3) But It's True, (8) Sir Sagamore, (9) Tarquin, (10) Un De Seaux, (12) Municipality
Get Back Nil.
PACE COMMENTS A huge field with a good mix of early speed from my front runners (Lahqa the most likely to lead) and on pacers which ensures the pace will be solid enough to provide all horses with a good chance of victory.
CHANCESBayside Auto Mornington Guineas 1500mOrderMargin
Sir Sagamore PLUS: Forgive soft track defeat last start, Hattori Hanzo form line strong, distance and track conditions suitable. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back to mid field.    
Gold Fields PLUS: Lightly raced front runner, held up two runs ago to Sir Sagamore. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
But It's True PLUS: Awesome first race start, classic lightly raced improver with limits unknown. C 0.75
  MINUS: Distance and dry track.    
Tarquin PLUS: Group 1 placed, second to Torgersen who was 2nd in last weeks Tulloch Stakes, distance and track conditions fine. D 1
  MINUS: First up this distance with 58kg getting back in the field.    
Rong Door Reggie PLUS: Faultless this preparation, two distance wins from two attempts, has won a good track, sits on the pace. E 1.25
  MINUS: Slight fear is just a wet tracker and class rise but is an improver so???    
Municipality PLUS: Cool Chap form line, distance and track conditions should not be an issue. F 1.75
  MINUS: Gets back to mid field.    
Quadrella Race# Mornington 2 April 2016
Mornington 7 Bayside Auto Mornington Guineas 1500m
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EXOTICS Bayside Auto Mornington Guineas 1500m
Exacta

A: 1 4 7 9 12 13

B: 1 4 7 9 12 13

Trifecta

A: 1 4 7 9 12 13

B: 1 4 7 9 12 13

C: 1 2 4 6 7 9 11 12 13 14

First Four

A: 1 4 7 9 12 13

B: 1 4 7 9 12 13

C: 1 2 4 6 7 9 11 12 13 14

D: 1 2 4 6 7 9 11 12 13 14

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