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Mornington Race 8: Hareeba Stakes 1200m

26/03/2015: Although Hard Stride is difficult to catch when he has things his way he can fight like a caged lion and I believe he can get a soft lead, control the race and it will take a strong horse to beat him on that scenario. Under The Louvre is the real star of the race off his Group 1 second to Shamal Wind but he does get back a fair way at times and may just not make it in time. Girl Guide beat last week’s Bendigo winner Nadeem Lass home last start and that’s a good recommendation for this race though her wide barrier against the boys is no help. What do you do with Mirage? The massive 384 days break and being cast off from John Sizeare big concerns but he is unbeaten which is no concern. He’s okat at about the 8/1 mark for mine. The betting will tell a story before the race. Natuzzi over raced last start over 1400m and the faster early pace will help him add a sixth distance win. Place chances to Afleet Esprit, Turquoise King, Sino Eagle, Saluter, Magnus Lad, Taddei Tondo, Scarlet Billows, Stratcombe and Mandla in another ripper race. It’s embarrassing naming so many but gee whiz - they are all there as chances on their best form. Almost field jobs in both legs of the quaddie, so far!

Mornington Race 8. RaceTime: AEDT 16:50, 28/03/2015

Front Runners (2) Hard Stride, (5) Solver.
On Pacers (7) Stratcombe, (9) Turquoise King, (12) Mandl, (15) Magnus Lad, (16) Afleet Esprit, (17) Sino Eagle.
Mid Fielders (4) Mirage, (6) Unpretentious, (8) Pin Your Hopes, (10) Under The Louvre, (11) Natuzzi, (14) Girl Guide.
Get Back (1) Rugged Cross, (3) Taddei Tondo, (13) Scarlet Billows.
PACE COMMENTS Hard Stride and Solver will control the lead as even though there are six on pacers I don’t really expect any of them to go berserk trying to lead. I would imagine they would be better served easing back. As I expect the pace to be relatively slow I am not keen on the mid fielders and get back types.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Hard Stride PLUS: Fighter, leader soft run(?), three wins distance. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Under The Louvre PLUS: Five from nine distance, one from one track and distance, Group 1 second last run. B 0.5
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Girl Guide PLUS: Nadeem Lass form line, three from six distance, one from one track and distance. C 1.5
  MINUS: Wide barrier for sometimes awkward beginner.    
Mirage PLUS: Unbeaten four from four career, two from two distance. D 1.75
  MINUS: Hong Kong discard off 385 days, fitness??    
Natuzzi PLUS: Five distance wins, all good tracks, nine career wins. E 2
  MINUS: Gets to mid field, will again from wide barrier.    
RISKY Unpretentious (impossible to follow), Rugged Cross (distance), Pin Your Hopes (first up this class).
Quadrella Race# Mornington 28 March 2015
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