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Mornington Race 9: Mornington BMW Cup 2400m

01/04/2016: Although Tom Melbourne might be suspect over 2400m it would take a brave man to suggest he cannot win considering the ease of his wins. I am not that brave. I don't think he handled the heavy track last start yet he still won easily after veering towards and hitting the running rail! If there's a kink in Tom in the last 100 metres Big Memory could find it as he has won the Group 2 Herbert Power Handicap third up off a good run, the exact scenario we have today. Observational is backing up within seven days and when this stable follows that procedure watch out. His defeat by Leebaz in the Easter Cup was terrific as he was forced quite wide on the home turn and simple mathematics suggests the beaten margin should have been a winning margin. Swacadelic was poorly ridden in the Adelaide Cup, speaking through my pocket, so forget the run and go back to his defeat of Signoff and suddenly his chance of win this race looks bright. Would Signoff be able to win this race with 62.5kg? I believe he could. If you do slot in Swacadelic, as I am doing. Puccini didn't ping as I would have liked last week, speaking through my kick again, but he didn't give up either and the seven day back up is a positive enough sign to give him one more chance.

Mornington Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: SHOWERY. RaceTime: AEDT 16:50, 02/04/2016

RACEMAPMornington BMW Cup 2400m
Front Runners (12) Mujadale, (18) Tuscan Fire.
On Pacers (1) Adirondack, (3) Falago, (5) Tom Melbourne, (14) Tunes, (16) Berisha, (17) Dandy Gent.
Mid Fielders (2) Lucky Lucky, (6) Wales, (7) Observational, (8) Nisos, (9) Puccini, (10) Swacadelic, (11) Pemberley, (13) Big Memory, (15) Ancient King.
Get Back (4) Don Doremo.
PACE COMMENTS Mujadale and Tuscan Fire have won several distance races by leading and all things being equal both should spurt to the lead and take up the running in this race. The jockeys on Tom Melbourne and Falago will both exhibit cheesy grins for most of the race as they will receive gifted runs. There is a wall of runners sitting mid field who should get their chance as I suspect the pace will be solid enough to suit all starters.
CHANCESMornington BMW Cup 2400mOrderMargin
Tom Melbourne PLUS: Winning with ease this campaign, perfect draw to get run of the race. A 0
  MINUS: Minor distance doubt.    
Big Memory PLUS: Third up winner of Group race this distance, races best on good tracks at 1800m or longer. B 0.25
  MINUS: Can get back and has difficult barrier to overcome.    
Observational PLUS: Wide run cost him victory last start, seven day back up positive for this stable, track condition suitable on Oz runs. C 0.5
  MINUS: Both distance flops poor runs in UK, gets back in run.    
Swacadelic PLUS: Poor ride last start when wide, Signoff form line excellent, good track and distance very suitable. D 1
  MINUS: Gets back to mid field from wide barrier.    
Puccini PLUS: Seven wins on good tracks, races best fourth up and deeper into a preparation, distance winner. E 1.25
  MINUS: Races mid field with 58kg.    
Quadrella Race# Mornington 2 April 2016
Mornington 7 Bayside Auto Mornington Guineas 1500m
Mornington 8 Hareeba Stakes 1200m
Mornington 9 Mornington BMW Cup 2400m
Mornington 10 Building Brands BM78 Handicap 1000m
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EXOTICS Mornington BMW Cup 2400m
Exacta

A: 2 3 4

B: 1 2 3 4 5 13 15

Trifecta

A: 2 3 4

B: 1 2 3 4 5 13 15

C: 1 2 3 4 5 13 15

First Four

A: 2 3 4

B: 1 2 3 4 5 13 15

C: 1 2 3 4 5 13 15

D: 1 2 3 4 5 13 15

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