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Morphettville Race 6: Schweppes Oaks 2000m

06/05/2016: Going for the X factor here in Abbey Marie who has only raced twice for a maiden win at Sandown and a BM70 at Caulfield over 1440m. Has big class hike here and jumps to the 2000m trip but trainer Mick Kent knows how to win these fillies classics and she wouldn't be entered here if he didn't think she was a winning chance. Found the line well at Caulfield from well back and extra distance may suit. Silent Sedition did well winning Group 3 here over 1800m from wide gate and draws much more favourably in this event. Has plenty of talent and big showing is expected here. Connections of Arcadia Dream have made a habit of winning big races over this carnival over the years and may take home another one with this filly who defeated the boys last run out in the W.A. Derby. Has to overcome horror draw out in 20 but with any luck should figure. Bengal Cat proved her win over Silent Sedition was no fluke 2 runs by following up with an all the win at Caulfield last time out over 1600m. Has to contend with 19 at the barrier and up to 2000m but looks underrated and warrants strong consideration. Believe was beaten less than a length in the Group 1 Australian Oaks when running 3rd and has won 2 and placed 2 from 5. That's strong form and looms as a major chance in a very open Oaks this year.

Morphettville Race 6. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEST 15:50, 07/05/2016

RACEMAPSchweppes Oaks 2000m
Front Runners (5) Lopartega, (19) Bengal Cat.
On Pacers (1) She's Got Speed, (7) Silent Sedition,(11) Artesian (13) C'est Beau La Vie.
Mid Fielders (2) The Grey Flash, (4) Street Spun, (12) First Impressions, (14) Believe, (15) Comprende, (20) Arcadia Dream.
Get Back (3) Abbey Marie, (6) Pasadena Girl, (8) Riverina Bella, (9) Jacqui's Joy, (10) Beluga Blue, (16) Camari, (17) Sacred Eye, (18) Asinara,
PACE COMMENTS Wow, a maximum field with just two most likely front runners and even then if Bengal Cat doesn't jump cleanly are they going to drop back or have a go at the proverbial stumps? The biggest issue is most runners in the field have not shown much pace early however most times the distances have been less than 2000m. In this type of race we just have to take the chance that the pace will be fair to most runners. Look, it's a Group 1 race and usually no matter the distance the action occurs a lot earlier at this level than in average races.
CHANCESSchweppes Oaks 2000mOrderMargin
Abbey Marie PLUS: Unbeaten both race starts, well drawn. A 0
  MINUS: Rises in class, jumps a bit in distance.    
Silent Sedition PLUS: Won 3 placed 4 from 8, winner only start this track, draws much better this week. B 0.5
  MINUS: Unknown past 1800m.    
Arcadia Dream PLUS: Beat the boys in W.A. Derby last time, won 5 placed 5 from 12, winner up to 2400m C 1
  MINUS: Has horror draw.    
Bengal Cat PLUS: Winner last 2 in town in Melbourne, has been placed at Grp 2 level. D 2.25
  MINUS: Has horror draw, unknown past 1600m.    
Believe PLUS: Top effort when 3rd Grp 1 Australian Oaks last run, won 2 placed 2 from 5. E 2.75
  MINUS: Yet to win past 1500m, drawn wide.    
Quadrella Race# Morphettville 7 May 2016
Morphettville 5 Ubet Euclase Stakes 1200m
Morphettville 6 Schweppes Oaks 2000m
Morphettville 7 Ubet Robert Sangster Classic 1200m
Morphettville 8 Hughes Queen Of The South Stakes 1600m
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EXOTICS Schweppes Oaks 2000m
Exacta

A: 2 3 6 14

B: 2 3 6 14

Trifecta

A: 2 3 6 8 14

B: 2 3 6 8 14

C: 2 3 6 8 14

First Four

A: 2 6 14

B: 2 3 6 14

C: 2 3 6 8 14

D: 2 3 6 8 14

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