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Rosehill Race 5: Octagonal Handicap 1400m

29/05/2015: This is a tricky race with no runner displaying any real compelling form lines. We'll opt for Rugged Cross as top selection where there not a great deal between the top fancied runners. Rugged Cross has won 3 from 5 over this distance, handles wet ground and has won this track. Good effort this class 2 runs back when beat smart field this distance at Randwick. If Divertire can replicate her powerhouse finish to win The Scone Dark Jewel Classic then that form would be good enough to take this out. Her from prior to that was a bit patchy so have to take on trust. You'll Never is another who can produce a big finish and was good winner in a BM95 last time out at this track, generally prefers drier ground but did win similar conditions last time. Rain Affair excels on wet ground and is a 4 time winner this track will get an easy lead here and although form has dropped off in recent times conditions suit and could be in this for a long way. Amovatio rates a genuine place chance.

Rosehill Race 5. RaceTime: AEST 14:25, 30/05/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (2) Rain Affair.
On Pacers (1) Mighty Lucky.
Mid Fielders (9) Eiglestein, (7) Rugged Cross, (4) Skip Town, (3) Divertire.
Get Back (5) You'll Never, (8) Amovatio, (6) Aeronautical.
PACE COMMENTS Rain Affair leads this lot on his ear with the only other runner with any modicum of any early tactical speed being Mighty Lucky. The free wheeling style of Rain Affair despite any other notable pace in the race should still set up a strong pace which should suit the fancied late closers in You'll Never and Amovatio. Rugged Cross will have admirers and should settle around a mid field position.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Rugged Cross PLUS: Won 3 from 5 at distance, winner this track, goes well in wet. A 0
  MINUS: Can get a long way back in races.    
Divertire PLUS: Drops in grade, goes well in wet, winner this track, winner this distance. B 0.75
  MINUS: Fluke win last time?    
You'll Never PLUS: Good winner lesser grade track and conditions last time, drawn well. C 1.25
  MINUS: Generally prefers dry ground.    
Rain Affair PLUS: Excels on wet ground, won 4 form 9 this track, gets easy lead this race. D 2.75
  MINUS: Form has tapered significantly in recent times.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Aeronautical (only 1 win in 10 at distance).
OUTCLASSED Eiglestein, Mighty Lucky, Skip Town.
Quadrella Race# Rosehill 30 May 2015
Rosehill 5 Octagonal Handicap 1400m
Rosehill 6 Get Well Lt Col Colin BM79 1200m
Rosehill 7 Schweppes BM85 1500m
Rosehill 8 Ranvet BM85 1200m
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