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Rosehill Race 6: NSW Thoroughbred Breeders Classic 1200m

06/02/2015: One of Australia's best mares in Catkins resumes here and I find it impossible to tip against her. Catkins has an imposing 1st up record of 5 wins and a 2nd in 6 goes. She is 5 time winner this track and clearly holds a decisive form edge over rivals. May be forced to lead here with no regular pacemaker but still should be too good for opposition. Neena Rock is a Group 3 winner and goes well fresh is primed for return with 2 recent barrier trials, will get a long way back but should be motoring late. Marianne was disappointing last time in lesser grade but has performed strongly this level in Melbourne in the past, goes well 2nd up and look for sharp improvement. Mihiri is working through the grades in fine style and strong recent form in lower grades suggest she may be ran a bold race in this stronger company. Arinosa is proven this level and has 3 1st up wins to her credit and is a winner her only run at track and distance, she is sure to be close up again.

Rosehill Race 6. RaceTime: AEDT 16:15, 07/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners Nil.
On Pacers (9) Catkins, (7) Marianne, (8) Role Model, (3) Mihiri.
Mid Fielders (6) Hera, (4) Just A Blur.
Get Back (10) Lilliburlero, (5) Arinosa, (2) Neena Rock, (1) Plucky Belle.
PACE COMMENTS In a race where there is no regular leader I'm prompting that Bowman on race favourite Catkins may very well take this mare to the lead as he endeavours to get near the fence from an outside draw here. Marianne, Role Model and Mihiri should all be right up on the pace whilst Neena Rock will drop out early and try to round them up in the straight. Pace assessment is moderate to genuine.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Catkins PLUS: Imposing 1st up record, won 5 times this track, one of Australia's best mares. A 0
  MINUS: Drawn a little wide, may be forced to lead here.    
Neena Rock PLUS: Winner Group 3 level, goes well fresh. B 2
  MINUS: Will get a long way back, beaten both runs this track.    
Marianne PLUS: Has performed strongly at Group level in Melbourne, goes well 2nd up. C 2.75
  MINUS: Disappointing in lower grade last time.    
Mihiri PLUS: Working through the classes well, well drawn for good run. D 3.5
  MINUS: Big class rise    
Arinosa PLUS: Proven this level in past, winner 3 times 1st up, winner only run track / distance. E 3.75
  MINUS: Trialled poorly for return, will get a long way back.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Lilliburlero (form inconsistent prior to spell), Plucky Belle (only 1 win in 6 first up).
OUTCLASSED Hera, Role Model, Just A Blur.
Quadrella Race# Rosehill 7 February 2015
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