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Rosehill Race 7: Cellerbrations BM85 1500m

26/06/2015: In an evenly graded affair we'll throw our trust onto Entertains as a good value bet. Entertains comes off a 75 day break but races well fresh and was a winner at her only start on heavy ground. Entertains was placed at Group 3 level 4 runs back and subsequent 3 runs prior to break were two at Group level and one at open class so looks well graded in a BM 85. Tipping stablemate Transfers here for a stable quinella. Transfers was a last start winner at this level on slow ground at Randwick and has a good strike rate of 4 wins and 4 placings in 16 starts, well drawn and can easily annexe a race like this. Berry Delicious rises in grade but was a good winner on heavy ground last time out at Randwick and goes well here at Rosehill. Sure to be in the thick of things again. Karakuchi has won 5 and placed twice in 10 runs and although rising in class has winning ways about her and has won on heavy ground. Berrimilla needs wet ground but doesn't win too many, although she is never far away. Sensualism rates a place chance. Sensualism rates a place chance.

Rosehill Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 15:45, 27/06/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (3) Orion Love.
On Pacers (11) Sesualism, (10) Vergara, (6) Transfers.
Mid Fielders (8) Miss Hufflepuff, (1) Campania, (7) Karakuchi.
Get Back (4) Entertains, (9) Berrimilla, (5) Berry Delicious, (2) Elegant Doubt.
PACE COMMENTS Orion Love draws well and looks to get a comfortable lead here against this lot. Transfers should get a nice passage from gate 6 whilst Sensualism will look to settle forward also from gate 11 and could possibly be forced to race outside the leader. Not a great deal of speed on paper here and that won't afford early fancy Berry Delicious any favours who will settle rearward. The overall pace assessment is only moderate for this race.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Entertains PLUS: Placed at Group 3 level, winner only run on heavy ground, races well fresh. A 0
  MINUS: Trialled poorly recently.    
Transfers PLUS: Last start winner this class at Randwick, good strike rates, winner soft ground. B 0.5
  MINUS: Unknown beyond 1400m, unplaced only run this track.    
Berry Delicious PLUS: Goes well this track, winner heavy ground, well drawn. C 1.5
  MINUS: Rises in class, short backup?    
Karakuchi PLUS: Has won 5 from 10, winner on heavy ground. D 2.25
  MINUS: Rises in class.    
Berrimilla PLUS: Loves heavy ground, winner this track. E 3
  MINUS: Has poor winning strike rate.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Vergara (has poor record in wet).
OUTCLASSED Orion Love, Campania, Elegant Doubt, Miss Hufflepuff.
Quadrella Race# Rosehill 27 June 2015
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