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Rosehill Race 7: The BMW 2400m

27/03/2015: Hartnell has been great in both his Australian runs having won up to 3200m will have no issues with the step up to 2400m of this race. Hartnell raced away with group 3 event last time at this track and will be given a sweet run by James McDonald from an inside gate. Relishes soft ground and looks an undeniable chance for back to back wins. Japanese horses a the flavour of the month at the moment and high class raider To The World looks a strong contender in this. Unknown on any other ground than good and failed to place only run this distance are some concerns though. Lucia Valentina excels on wet ground which is the early prediction for Rosehill on Saturday. She's been a little disappointing since resuming from spell but will grow another leg if it remains wet. Silent Achiever was a bit disappointing in small field last time after two good runs after spelling. Has good wet form and good record this distance. Can easily deliver knockout blow if race is run to suit. Melbourne Cup winner has been disappointing in both runs back but is unbeaten in both runs on soft ground and will appreciate extra distance here. Rising Romance rates a strong place chance.

Rosehill Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 16:30, 28/03/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (5) Fast Dragon.
On Pacers (3) Hartnell, (10) Rising Romance, (11) Hampton Court.
Mid Fielders (9) Who Shot The Barman, (7) Beaten Up, (6) To The World, (8) Silent Achiever.
Get Back (12) Protectionist, (4) Opinion, (2) Lucia Valentina, (1) Extra Zero.
PACE COMMENTS Fast Dragon looks certain to lead here from gate 5 with the well fancied Hartnell sure to get a gun run from gate 3. Rising Romance will cross from 10 and should race prominent throughout. No pattern data about Japanese raider and fancy To The World so we've assumed mid field from a good draw. Lucia Valentina and Protectionist will be giving away tidy starts from their expected well back settling positions.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Hartnell PLUS: Easy winner Group 3 level last time, winner only run this track, goes well in wet, distance a plus. A 0
  MINUS: Beaten both runs this level in past.    
To The World PLUS: High class Japanese raider, won 4 placed 4 from 10 runs. B 1.5
  MINUS: All form is on good ground, beaten all 4 Group 1 races in past, unplaced only run this distance.    
Lucia Valentina PLUS: Goes well this track, excels in wet ground. C 2.25
  MINUS: Yet to win past 2000m, disappointing last time in small field.    
Silent Achiever PLUS: Races well this track and distance, goes well in wet, proven this level. D 3
  MINUS: Has been beaten last 8 runs.    
Protectionist PLUS: Unbeaten both runs on soft ground, will relish distance increase of this race, fitter for 2 runs, E 3.25
  MINUS: A bit disappointing in both runs back this time, drawn a bit wide.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Who Shot The Barman (unplaced all 3 runs this track).
OUTCLASSED Beaten Up, Opinion, Extra Zero, Fast Dragon, Hampton Court.
Quadrella Race# Rosehill 28 March 2015
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