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Rosehill Race 8: Ajax Stakes 1500m

11/03/2016: Happy to stay with the Group 1 winning Good Project here in another tricky race. This Chris Waller trained horse put in a cracker of a first up run when a narrowly beaten 3rd in the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup at Randwick 2 weeks back. Generally goes OK 2nd up although yet to notch a win but has two 2nds. Has to overcome a very wide draw here but if rider Brenton Avdulla can get in he should take plenty of beating. Generalife looked unlucky last time not to have finished closer when 4th in the same race. Some concerns about the 1500m but has good draw and is never far off them in these types of events. Puccini is a Group 1 winner in N.Z. and showed a glimpse of that form after being out of sorts for some time when close up 3rd in Group 3 event at Flemington last run. Has to be taken on trust and yet to win at less than 1600m is a concern too, but rates very highly on career best. It's Somewhat also raced in that same race and although unplaced was only 1.4 lengths adrift of the winner, drawn wide but another who rates here in a very open race. Rock Sturdy has very good figures here at Rosehill and is a winner his only run this distance. It ran 2nd in the Liverpool Cup and beat most of these home so must rate on the basis of that. Draws well and has won 2nd up in the past.

Rosehill Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:50, 12/03/2016

RACEMAPAjax Stakes 1500m
Front Runners (7) Sadler's Lake.
On Pacers (9) Red Excitement.
Mid Fielders (14) It's Somewhat, (5) Generalife, (11) Big Money, (15) Good Project, (8) Dances On Stars.
Get Back (4) Rudy, (12) Alpha Beat, (10) Casino Dancer, (3) Puccini, (2) Rock Sturdy, (1) Weary, (13) Excess Knowledge, (6) Kool Kompany.
PACE COMMENTS A clear lack of pace in this race with one designated leader and only one other pace runner. Sadler's Lake should have little trouble leading here assuming the rider wants to do so and Red Excitement who showed the first glimpse of form for some time last time out should be able to stalk the leader just tucked in behind him. Obviously some of the listed mid field runners will find themselves in on pace positions here purely through the lack of runners as such. Given the lack of pace on paper here I would be wary of wagering on backmarkers who could be at a clear pace disadvantage. Pace assessment in moderate.
CHANCESAjax Stakes 1500mOrderMargin
Good Project PLUS: Has won at Grp 1 level, goes well this track, top run on return when narrowly beaten 3rd. A 0
  MINUS: Drawn wide, yet to win in 4 second up runs.    
Generalife PLUS: Won 4 from 7 this track, looked unlucky last time, well drawn. B 1
  MINUS: Yet to win past 1400m.    
Puccini PLUS: Showed return to best last time when narrowly beaten in 3 way photo, Grp 1 winner in N.Z. C 1.5
  MINUS: Yet to win at less than 1600m.    
It's Somewhat PLUS: Winner Grp 3 level, placed Grp 2 level, close up when unplaced last time. D 2.5
  MINUS: Drawn wide, yet to win past 1436m.    
Rock Sturdy PLUS: Strong record this track, winner only run this distance, placed in Grp 1 Emirates at Flemington. E 3
  MINUS: Beaten at last 10 starts.    
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EXOTICS Ajax Stakes 1500m
Exacta

A: 2 4

B: 2 4 5 9

Trifecta

A: 2 4

B: 2 4 5 6 9

C: 2 4 5 6 9

First Four

A: 2 4

B: 2 4 5 6 9

C: 2 4 5 6 9

D: 2 4 5 6 9 11

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