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Rosehill Race 9: Tab More Than Winning BM78 1500m

1/07/2016: Really tough one here to wind up proceedings and no real confidence with selections. Gambler's Blues won this grade 3 runs back and has been runner up in both subsequent runs since. Has to overcome wide draw and has finished 2nd 3 times in 4 runs this track. Opposition not strong here and looks real chance to break through. Thurston was beaten less than 1 length when 4th last time out and drops back from 84 class to contest this. Has gotten a long way back from wide draws last couple but draws much better this week. Look for better effort here. Avonaco is a last start winner this class here over 1350m. Has repeatedly failed at distances beyond that distance and that is the big worry here. May go better this time if can be buried away with a late split. Bold Circle is proven this level and has good 2nd up record. Normally gets back and will need things to go right in big field but if it does has the ability for sure. Brewery has won 4 placed 4 from 16 and is a winner his only run this distance. Rises in grade but has been consistent.

Rosehill Race 9. Track Condition: SOFT (5). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEST 16:25, 02/07/2016

RACEMAPTab More Than Winning BM78 1500m
Front Runners (7) Brewery.
On Pacers (1) Vite Loni, (9) Avonaco, (14) Gambler's Blues.
Mid Fielders (2) Wine 'N' Dine, (3) Thurston, (4) Clunes Rocket, (5) Kanji, (8) Super Tycoon, (10) Hypernicus.
Get Back (6) Nadacheva, (11) Colour Of Money, (12) Bold Circle, (13) Embley, (15) Consign, (16) Final Decision, (17) Obsidian.
PACE COMMENTS Although I have Brewery as the leader it is only because he led three starts ago but you will note he did not lead start when winning at Hawkesbury. Once I look deeper into the pace there is the more likely situation of the pace being muddling early as the jockeys try and make it easy for their mounts. I would not be surprised if a couple of my mid fielders surged up early but don’t ask me which ones! Look, you will have to take your chances with the pace for this race as I am not confident of any horse displaying past tendencies and on that basis all I can suggest is make sure the odds you take represent value.
CHANCESTab More Than Winning BM78 1500mOrderMargin
Gambler's Blues PLUS: A bit unlucky last time, runner up 3 times this track, winner up to 1600m, proven this level. A 0
  MINUS: Drawn wide.    
Thurston PLUS: Unlucky last time, placed this track, well drawn, drops in grade. B 0.5
  MINUS: Has been beaten last 13 starts.    
Avonaco PLUS: Last start winner track and class, won 3 placed 4 from 13. C 1.5
  MINUS: Repeatedly failed at distances beyond 1350m.    
Bold Circle PLUS: Proven this level, strong 2nd up form. D 1.75
  MINUS: Only 1 win in 9 this track.    
Brewery PLUS: Won 4 placed 4 from 16, winner only start this distance. E 3
  MINUS: Rises in class.    
Quadrella Race# Rosehill 2 July 2016
Rosehill 6 Club Marconi BM72 1500M
Rosehill 7 Civic Stakes 1350m
Rosehill 8 Hyland Race Colours BM84 1200m
Rosehill 9 Tab More Than Winning BM78 1500m
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EXOTICS Tab More Than Winning BM78 1500m
Exacta

A: 1 4 9 11

B: 1 4 9 11

Trifecta

A: 1 2 4 9 11

B: 1 2 4 9 11

C: 1 2 4 9 11

First Four

A: 1 9 11

B: 1 4 9 11

C: 1 2 4 9 11 12

D: 1 2 4 9 11 12

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