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Sandown Race 6: Sportingbet Protest Pay Up Handicap 1400m

06/02/2015: As stated in my race map comments Decircles really looks a top chance in this race. To some punters the distance might concern but he will receive a breather mid race to help his cause. Amorino was beaten 2.8 lengths in the Group 1 Railway Stakes in Perth then never got a crack at them in the Scahill Stakes. Since then he has had two spaced runs and is ready to give Decircles a fright with the weight turnaround after the claim for Lucy Warwick, a very, very capable young WA female rider. Search Squad might not get too far back at this distance compared to his 1200m runs and is also a chance with a handy claim. Self Sense is an 81 rater but I will be very surprised if that figure isn’t higher very shortly. He might be being set for longer races but the ability to win first up is there so keep him safe. The long run in will assist Whisper Downs to reproduce his excellent first up run but I would be happier about his chances if Decircles wasn’t controlling the race as I suspect will happen. Place chances: Pillar Of Creation can improve second up , Tales Of Grimm has been brought down from Sydney for this first up but is a mystery horse at this stage while Chile Express often runs on into the placings but seldom wins.

Sandown Race 6. RaceTime: AEDT 16:35, 07/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (6) Decircles.
On Pacers (2) Self Sense, (11) Pillar Of Creation.
Mid Fielders (1) Search Squad, (3) Tales Of Grimm, (9) Amorino.
Get Back (4) Osvaldo, (5) Lunayir, (7) Escado, (8) Whisper Downs, (10) Chile Express.
PACE COMMENTS Unless one of my mid fielders decides to change tactics this map is extremely simple. Decircles leads from Self Sense kicking through and Pillar Of Creation coming across from out wide. While this trio sort things out those behind will slot into their positions as well and voila, after two hundred metres it’s all set. This scenario gives Decircles a strong chance of victory as he can fight and his jockey S Baster knows how to lead in a race without over extending his mounts.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Decircles PLUS: Leads, controls the race, fighter in a finish. A 0
  MINUS: One win nine distance runs.    
Amorino PLUS: Six wins good tracks, 3kg weight advantage on Decircles, two Melbourne runs improvers. B 0.25
  MINUS: One win nine distance runs, mid field in slow early pace race.    
Search Squad PLUS: 2 kg claim, four from ten good tracks. C 1
  MINUS: Two seconds two distance runs, might get back too far early difficult to assess.    
Self Sense PLUS: Six wins nineteen runs career, two from four first up, one from one track and distance. D 1.5
  MINUS: One win eight good track runs.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Escado (84 days at distance, backmarker), Lunayir (still Oz maiden, 322 days at distance big ask, stable change).
OUTCLASSED Osvaldo.
Quadrella Race# Sandown 7 February 2015
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