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Sandown Race 7: William Hill Plate 1300m

06/02/2015: As I have a bit of a handle on Stratum Star (has beaten the same horse twice and rose 19 handicap points for the wins), Merion (just feel he will be better second up where he is unbeaten)and Chivalry (is he over rated or just immature last preparation), the top three rated horses according to the handicapper, I am going to take my chances on the movements of two top stables. J O’Shea has brought the unbeaten Hauraki (both wins at 1400m, by the way) to Melbourne while the formidable Hawkes Team have Onerous in town after an easy first up “kill”. Just remember Onerous didn’t get the best of runs behind Rich Enuff in the Danehill Stakes (his own fault through immaturity) so based on that run he has plenty of upside his way. To be honest I don’t think they are value at their quotes and would rather take the double figures eachway on Merion but neither horse knows their odds; they might just be too good. A tricky race for quadrella bettors.

Sandown Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 17:15, 07/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners None
On Pacers (1) Samartested, (2) Profit Share, (3) Onerous.
Mid Fielders (4) Lady Einstein, (5) Houraki, (6) Stratum Star, (7) Gouldian, (8) Merion.
Get Back (9) Chivalry, (11) Orient Line.
PACE COMMENTS As you will note I don’t have a leader hence my on pacers essentially become the front runners and the others are moved up accordingly. This sort of race map can be disastrous with some horses racing out of their comfort zones. Considering most of this field are heading towards the Australian Guineas I wouldn’t be surprised to see some in running experimentation taking place as connections try to work out the best running style for their horses. Sorry, but I cannot help too much with this sort of scenario.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Onerous PLUS: Two from two first up, first up win like barrier trial, on pace if jumps. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Hauraki PLUS: Two from two untapped potential, O'Shea Godolphin team. B 0.25
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Merion PLUS: Two from five good tracks, three from four fresh, three from six career. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Chivalry PLUS: Poor ride behind Merion, shorter distance beneficial than longer distance late last campaign. D 1.25
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Orient Line PLUS: Almost beat handy Lord aspen third race start, untapped potential. E 2
  MINUS: Mid fielder at best, wide barrier.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Profit Share (lacks killer instinct this level), Samartested (poor run last start).
OUTCLASSED Lady Einstein, Gouldian.
Quadrella Race# Sandown 7 February 2015
Sandown 6 Sportingbet Protest Pay Up Handicap 1400m
Sandown 7 William Hill Plate 1300m
Sandown 8 Sportingbet Quick Multis Handicap BM84 1000m
Sandown 9 Ryan Branighan Handicap BM78 1400m
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