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Sandown Race 7: William Hill Sandown Guineas 1600m

13/11/2015: Over the years this has been a race with some strange form results emanating from a change of track (usually Flemington and Caulfield) to Sandown’s sometime treacherous uphill straight and, of course, there is the issue of distance in the last 100 metres. Although it looks like Demonstrate will struggle over 1600m after leading and weakening over 1400m last start I am prepared to back the stable/jockey combination having learned from the ride. I will be really happy is he doesn't lead. Don't Doubt Mamma's finish last start indicated this filly has ability and if the track plays for the swoopers she is in with a top chance. Dal Cielo ran a ripper of a race at his first Australian run behind Bon Aurum and Tulsa but his next two runs were total forgive efforts as he was checked twice two runs ago in the Caulfield Guineas and was just outclassed behind Japonisme in the Coolmore over 1200m. Give him a chance here at odds. Mahuta can lead all the way for the D K Weir stable as we at least know he can run the distance. I am unsure re Ngarimu but he has the potential to take the next step so in he goes even though at the weights Demonstrate should beat him home. I have enormous respect for Robert Smerdon's opinion and if he thinks Zafika is worth throwing into the deep pool at her second race start then I am going join him.

Sandown Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEDT 16:40, 14/11/2015

RACEMAPWilliam Hill Sandown Guineas 1600m
Front Runners (14) Mahuta.
On Pacers (3) Demonstrate, (9) Zafiki, (12) Dal Cielo.
Mid Fielders (1) Gredington, (2) Marky Mark, (4) The Grey Flash, (5) Don't Doubt Mamma, (7) Ngarimu, (8) Maysam, (10) Flying Light, (11) Patch Adams, (13) He's Our Rokkii.
Get Back (6) Shockaholic, (15) Sea Of Tranquility.
PACE COMMENTS On all we know it seems like Mahuta will lead as a positive move has to eventuate from the wide barrier with Dal Cielo (a possible leader if the stable so desire), Demonstrate and newcomer Zafiki going forward to survey the early scene. It shouldn't take too long to sort out the early positions and, for mine, it is drop anchors after that which will cause the mid fielders (I have nine of them) to be all over the place due to a perceived lack of pace. The pace of the race will really suit Demonstrate
CHANCESWilliam Hill Sandown Guineas 1600mOrderMargin
Demonstrate PLUS: Gets perfect run, top stable and rider, softer run expected than leading last start. A 0
  MINUS: Zero wins on dry tracks, distance query.    
Don't Doubt Mamma PLUS: Three good track wins from seven starts, weight relief for filly, let up after distance failure forgivable. B 0.25
  MINUS: Filly versus males, gets back.    
Dal Cielo PLUS: Forgive last two runs when checked and outclassed, can lead, two good track wins. C 1
  MINUS: Distance query.    
Mahuta PLUS: Two wins from four good track starts, distance winner, likely to lead and could steal race. D 1.5
  MINUS: Wide barrier will cause early work, distance win was on a soft track.    
Ngarimu PLUS: Classic improver, handles good and soft tracks as best as can be noted after two starts. E 2.5
  MINUS: Gets back, meets Demonstarte 3.5kg worse for a length defeat.    
Zafiki PLUS: R Smerdon is no fool, respect her here at race start number 2, will be up close early which is a big help. F 2.75
  MINUS: Obvious class rise.    
Quadrella Race# Sandown 14 November 2015
Sandown 6 Mypunter Eclipse Stakes 1800m
Sandown 7 William Hill Sandown Guineas 1600m
Sandown 8 William Hill Sandown Cup 3200m
Sandown 9 Le Pine Funerals Summoned Stakes 1500m
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