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Sandown Race 9: Vawdrey Semi Trailers Handicap 2400m

04/12//2015: Although this race is tricky pace wise I don't think there too many winning chances on exposed form around this distance and a tad shorter. Purple Smile picks himself with the 3kg claim and strong win over Sammy The Snake who should run second again if we apply the "winners keep winning" rule and forget weight changes. Hot on their trail could be Maharaaj whose breeding is one hundred per cent all about staying. He obviously needed the run last start when off a 44 day break and let's assume the Avoca Cup run was excusable because of the subsequent break. Triple Gold will need to be good to win from almost last but I do take note he was checked in the SA Derby plus pulled up with blood in his mouth (not nostrils) which indicates his 6.6 lengths defeat to the WA staying star Delicacy was a good run. He did run on well last start off a 25 day break when jumping nearly 500m in distance so in he goes, too. Crackajack could simply be a promising stayer whose efforts so far have been on ability rather than anything else. His breeding suggests a chance at the distance, without standing out like Mahaaraj, but what has me interested are two factors. One, his trainer is one I keep an eye on as his strike rate overall is quite good all told (157 runners for 27 wins) and two, he gave this horse a nice barrier trial eight days after his win at Donald. Crackajack is worth slotting in at the double figure odds as it would be a shame to miss the quaddie on the basis of my reasons for inclusion.

Sandown Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:25, 05/12/2015

RACEMAPVawdrey Semi Trailers Handicap 2400m
Front Runners (12) Aagas, (16) Sammy The Snake.
On Pacers (1) Maharaaj, (4) Aberfeldy, (7) Purple Smile, (10) Braidley, (13) Zenithal, (18) Maysoor.
Mid Fielders (2) Sir Leliani, (3) Everglades, (8) Crackajack, (9) All I Survey, (11) Rocknet, (14) Zaralily, (15) Triple Gold.
Get Back (5) Spanish Love, (17) Subiaso.
PACE COMMENTS I don't know what to suggest in this race as there is enormous inconsistency amongst the running style of the eight horses I have as leaders and on pacers. Several of my on pacers may lead or they may be held back early. Throw into the mix the issue of the distance as only three runners (Purple Smile, Sammy The Snake and Sir Leliani) have run at the distance and often trainers want their horse to be ridden quietly, which could be against their normal pattern, to get the distance. I think we just have to say the pace is a query but we have no clear issue against any runner.
CHANCESVawdrey Semi Trailers Handicap 2400mOrderMargin
Purple Smile PLUS: Four good track wins, wins at 2300m and 2400m, gets good run, 3kg claim terrific. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Sammy The Snake PLUS: Distance winner at track, three wins from twelve runs third up or deeper, all wins on good tracks. B 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Maharaaj PLUS: Four wins from twenty dry track runs, quick backup from astute stable, 1.5kg claim helps. C 0.75
  MINUS: Slight distance doubt but bred to stay all day.    
Triple Gold PLUS: Good SA Derby run to Delicacy after checked run, handles all track conditions, stayer in the making. D 1.25
  MINUS: Could get back to last in possibly strange pace race (see racemap comments).    
Crackajack PLUS: Three good track wins, won only staying start last run at 2000m, barrier trial win since last win. E 1.75
  MINUS: Distance doubt but sire was by Danehil...    
Quadrella Race# Sandown 5 December 2015
Sandown 6 Total Logistic Solutions Handicap 1000m
Sandown 7 City Of Greater Dandenong Stakes 1000m
Sandown 8 Sensational Springvale Handicap 1300m
Sandown 9 Vawdrey Semi Trailers Handicap 2400m
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EXOTICS Vawdrey Semi Trailers Handicap 2400m
Exacta

A: 1 3

B: 1 3 4 5 8

Trifecta

A: 1 3 4

B: 1 3 4 5 8

C: 1 3 4 5 8

First Four

A: 1 3 4

B: 1 3 4 5 8

C: 1 3 4 5 8

D: 1 3 4 5 8

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