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Sunshine Coast Race 5: Sunshine Coast Guineas 1600m

15/05/2015: From barrier one I see Worthy Cause cruising off the pace ready to pounce with an appropriate split upon straightening and achieve a hat trick of wins. He is the classic lightly raced improver as can be noted by his ratings jumping from 69 to 84 (about 7.5kg) from three runs ago. Skylimit will either lead or just sit off the pace but either way third up he is ready to win as I felt he just peaked last start in the last fifty metres on the soft going after rising 425 metres in distance. Winx is the standout at the weights but as I alluded in my racemap comments she has a bit of a task ahead of her and I would be requiring at least 4/1 before I think about savers. Abduction is off forty days, which concerns me, but she has the class to overcome the break evidenced by finishing ahead of Fenway in the Wakeful Stakes. She was knocked rotten last start on jumping so forgive the ten lengths defeat. It’s just a matter of what happened to her physically from that run. Swift Lady was luckless two runs ago and last start just steamed over the top of the field to win running away, albeit on a heavy track. She is another improver worth having on board. Place chances to Merion, Redeem Code and Elusive Catch.

Sunshine Coast Race 5. RaceTime: AEST 14:42, 16/05/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (6) Skylimit, (9) Whatalovelyday, (19) Silver Heels.
On Pacers (2) Right Or Wrong, (10) Game Of Fame.
Mid Fielders (1) Worthy Cause, (3) Redeem Code, (5) Buckin The Blues, (12) Merion, (14) Elusive Catch, (16) Hawadayah.
Get Back (4) Abduction, (7) Sam De Hero, (8) Ulmann, (11) Rhodin Drive, (13) Eljetem, (16) Winx, (17) Swift Lady, (18) Rising Luck.
PACE COMMENTS With five horses marked as front runners or on pacers there should be enough early pace to suggest those further back will have their chance if good enough. As I read the map I am suggesting Worthy Cause and Skylimit will reap the benefits of their handy draws. The horse that worries me the most is Winx as I believe she has to go back from the wide barrier and even though the pace out front will be passable she has to come from almost last.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Worthy Cause PLUS: One from two track, won at 1800m distance not issue, lightly raced improver, perfectly drawn. A 0
  MINUS: Two from four in wet.    
Skylimit PLUS: Leads or on pace, ready third up. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Winx PLUS: Class of race has seven kilos advantage on top rated Merion. C 1.25
  MINUS: Gets way back, thirty five days.    
Abduction PLUS: Fenway spring form key effort for this, last run forgivable beaten 2.2 lengths Group 1 prior. D 1.5
  MINUS: Forty days.    
Swift Lady PLUS: Lightly raced improver, easy winner last run. E 1.75
  MINUS: Wide draw, has to go back early.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Ulmann (runs on but this class query).
OUTCLASSED Rhodin Drive, Eljetem, Buckin The Blues, Rising Luck, Right Or Wrong, Whatalovelyday, Game Of Fame, Hawadayah, Silver Heels, Sam De Hero.
Quadrella Race# Sunshine Coast 16 May 2015
Sunshine Coast 5 Sunshine Coast Guineas 1600m
Sunshine Coast 6 Caloundra Cup 2400m
Sunshine Coast 7 Glasshouse Handicap 1300m
Sunshine Coast 8 Yalumba Wines Bribie Handicap 1000m
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